What best describes 'tail risk' in the context of targeted violence?

Tail risk refers to the likelihood of extreme events occurring at the far ends of a probability distribution, particularly those that fall outside the range of usual expectations. In the context of targeted violence, this involves the understanding that while the majority of incidents may fall within expected norms, there are rare but significant occurrences that can have catastrophic consequences.

Describing tail risk as probabilities of risk at the extreme end of the normal distribution highlights the focus on low-probability but high-impact events, such as certain types of targeted violence that can greatly affect individuals or communities. This concept underscores the importance of preparing for and being aware of these extreme scenarios, even if their likelihood is low.

Understanding tail risk is essential for threat assessment and management, as addressing such risks requires different strategies compared to more common, moderate-risk situations. This distinction allows practitioners to better allocate resources and develop appropriate intervention strategies for those rare but severe incidents that may not be captured in standard risk assessments.